New forecast modeling puts Austin homeless population near 4,600

New methods for counting and forecasting by one of Austin’s leading homelessness services organizations suggests nearly 4,600 people are experiencing homelessness in the city, far higher than previous estimates and counts using federal guidelines.

The new figure was revealed at last week’s Downtown Commission meeting in a report from Dianna Grey, the city’s homeless strategy officer, on the current state of homelessness in the area and efforts to decrease it. The estimate of 4,600 people comes from the Ending Community Homelessness Coalition, which in 2021 began pairing  ongoing outreach efforts with statistical analysis of interactions with service providers for the homeless, instead of relying on traditional point-in-time counts.

In recent years, the traditional counts have put the local homeless population – living either in shelters or with no housing at all – at 2,500 to 3,000 people.

“We don’t think that this corresponds to a frank increase of 2,000 people over two years, but rather we have identified a way to count people who may have been missed previously,” Grey said. “Which is not to say we haven’t had some increase, but it’s not that entire number.”

She said results of the city’s latest point-in-time count, which was conducted in January, are expected soon. She also said recent counts conducted by groups such as the Downtown Austin Alliance that have shown a substantial decrease in the homeless population downtown can be attributed to increased enforcement of the city’s camping ban, as well as to efforts to find housing for former residents of encampments along Cesar Chavez Street and near Lady Bird Lake.

Regarding the city’s goal of raising $515 million to house 3,000 people by the end of 2024, Grey said the community is still $60 million short. But she said work is underway to create 1,300 new homes and other permanent supportive housing for the previously homeless.

Commissioner David Gomez, who works with the Other Ones Foundation to assist the homeless, said the city should look to make “group homes” that provide board and care a more substantial option when it comes to housing for the homeless.

“I’ve been trying to figure out why it’s not more of a part of our response to homelessness than it has been, because it can be and sadly that is where people go that have what you’d call a fixed income, like if they get Social Security benefits,” he said. “(The homes) have been there, but a lot of times the people fall out of that back into homelessness, and if there was more support and more understanding of what role they could play maybe we’d have another ally in that situation.”

Grey said such group homes have proven difficult to use reliably because of the lack of regulations and baseline standards for the services provided.

“Because of that the quality has been very uneven in our community and the results for people experiencing homelessness and their success in those environments has been quite varied,” she said.

Grey added that a recent steering committee for improved mental health services – which factors heavily in the local homelessness population – called for creating a certification process for group facilities that provide board and care. The hope is that the certification would establish a baseline of quality and services provided, which would allow for improved funding and support services.

The meeting also included an update on the coming closure of the downtown Salvation Army shelter, with Grey noting as of last week there were about two dozen residents still in need of new shelter before the delayed closure, which is expected to take place next month.

Photo made available through a Creative Commons license.

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