Report suggests Austin reach net-zero climate goals via housing density and increased transit

The Environmental Commission heard a presentation last week on a research paper that discusses how Austin can reach its net-zero carbon emission goals via increased housing density.

The report is the result of nonprofit Transit Forward, which is dedicated to educating and engaging the public regarding transit projects, particularly Project Connect. One of the nonprofit’s projects is producing reports on policy areas that intersect with transit.

Bill McCamley, executive director of Transit Forward, explained that the group partnered with Isabella Peterson, a master’s student at the LBJ School of Public Affairs, to produce “Reaching Austin’s Net Zero Goals Via Housing Density.”

“I know here in Austin we care about climate change,” McCamley said. “There are specific goals that I’m sure you are all very familiar with that the city set up to try to get reduction in greenhouse gasses. And we’ve always believed that more transit and more density near transit stops is probably the best way to go about doing it.”

In order to test this hypothesis, Transit Forward commissioned Peterson’s study. The report includes climate projections for Austin and then outlines how housing density and transit can help ease those impacts by reducing greenhouse gas emissions. The report also evaluates the city’s Climate Equity Plan and puts forward recommendations for improvement.

To begin the presentation, Peterson noted that Austin emits more than 10 million metric tons of CO2 annually.

“If Austin really continues down this pathway, there’s going to be a rise of average temperatures, extreme weather like we experienced during Winter Storm Uri, and prolonged droughts that really make the lives of our Texan residents a lot more difficult,” Peterson said. “Especially on the environmental equity and economics aspects.”

The report states that without mitigation, Austin can expect a worsening climate. Peterson said there are mitigation options, however. One such option is through increased housing density and transit access. According to the report, the average carbon footprint for a single-family household is 100 pounds of CO2 per square meter. Dense housing units closer to the city center have lower carbon footprints. Austin is known for its restrictive single-family zoning rules.

“Mixed-use zoning really allows us to merge both residential and commercial entities, such as apartment buildings next to grocery stores, next to small businesses, really increasing that walkability that a community can experience, thereby decreasing their reliance on cars and thus lowering the greenhouse gas footprint that a certain community has.”

The presentation includes a map produced using the University of California, Berkeley’s CoolClimate Network. Peterson explained that the map shows Austin’s specific household carbon footprint by ZIP code. The blue sections in the city center represent the households with lower carbon footprints. The areas in red represent ZIP codes in which the households have a higher carbon footprint.

“The thing to highlight here is that the areas in the centered area are usually where you have more dense, mixed-use zoning areas that lead to those lowered carbon footprints,” Peterson said. “One, because they don’t have to rely on cars to commute as far to get to their daily necessities or run their daily errands, but also because that housing is much more dense.”

The darkest blue area on the map, and therefore the area with the lowest carbon footprint in the region, includes the University of Texas’ West Campus.

“That is a really great example of a super walkable community that has stacked apartments with grocery stores in there that students can commute through without needing a car – especially on a day-to-day basis, especially compared to the rural counterparts,” Peterson said.

The second half of the report focuses on the Austin Climate Equity Plan, which was last updated in 2021 and sets the goal of reaching net-zero emissions by 2040. The plan includes goals regarding housing and transit. The research team decided to check in with at least three of the goals and determine the city’s progress in meeting those goals.

Peterson said one of the aspects of the report that stood out was the fact that it notes most of the region’s greenhouse gas emissions come from the transportation and electricity sectors. As of April, the report found that six out of 11 were off track. In terms of transportation and land use goals, the city hasn’t started work on six of 13. And none was complete.

The report concludes with a list of recommendations, including:

• Increase housing density to achieve greater city mobility, in particular mixed residential zoning, accessory dwellings and affordable units
• Increase the usage of current and future transit systems through education campaigns, increased user friendliness of the CapMetro app and lower rider fees
• Educate city of Austin residents on the importance of housing density

“Housing density increased with accessible transportation near those communities can really help reduce greenhouse gas emissions, lowering the city’s total carbon footprint, and thereby also achieving Austin’s net-zero climate goals,” Peterson said.

McCamley referenced the U.S. Climate Vulnerability Index, which is a collaboration between Texas A&M University and the Environmental Defense Fund showing climate risk by region.

“And almost all of Texas, including a lot of ZIP codes around the Austin area, was at very, very high risk of very bad things happening as the climate change gets bad,” he said. “I think people are now starting to really see and taste and hear and feel the results of climate change: When you see the hottest summers on record, when you have to go to a restaurant and our drought’s so bad that people have to ask you if you want water. If you go out to Lake Travis, and it’s so low, people are seeing it. And so we know that people understand that this is a real thing.”

McCamley also referenced the successful court challenge by environmental groups of the city’s density-focused comprehensive plan.

“And that’s really frustrating for us, because, as Ms. Peterson showed us, just putting more solar on houses, just reducing natural gas – that’s not going to do it,” McCamley said. “That’s not going to get us where we need to be. We need more transit and we need more dense housing near transit because housing and transit combined, they’re number one and number two in terms of greenhouse gas emissions.”

Photo made available through a Creative Commons license.

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