New climate report shows last summer’s record-high temps might not be a fluke

The results are in from researchers at the University of Texas’ Climate CoLab, and those who hoped last summer’s record-breaking temperatures to be a deviation from the norm might want to adjust their expectations.

The new Climate Projections report, which hit city desks last week, runs climate models with both static and increasing emissions scenarios to predict Austin weather trends through the end of the century. The report confirms that previously uncommon temperatures of over 110 degrees will become increasingly frequent, with heat wave events – defined as three or more consecutive days with lows above 78 degrees and highs above 102.5 – expected to double over the next 80 years.

Summer 2023 was Austin’s hottest on record, with more than 80 days hitting 100 degrees and 40 breaking 105. Still, emergency response teams say that 2024 is already shaping up to be a formidable challenger to that record, with rising temperatures getting an unusually early start.

“Just over Memorial Day weekend, we saw a significant spike in heat-related illnesses from Friday to Monday,” Austin-Travis County EMS Chief Robert Luckritz said at a press conference last Tuesday. “We responded to 54 emergencies just in that one weekend. By comparison, in 2023, we saw only eight. … Since the beginning of April, we’ve already responded to 177 heat-related illnesses, which is almost a 90 percent increase from last year.”

With the crisis unabating, Austin’s Office of Sustainability is all-hands-on-deck in devising resilience strategies, currently anchored by a network of cooling centers at parks, recreation facilities and public libraries throughout the city. Now, staff hopes to expand the program while tackling a more long-term approach outlined in the city’s new Heat Resilience Playbook released last week.

Among proposed solutions are free water access at city facilities, improved shade infrastructure and increased hours at pools and splash pads, with a focus on targeting at-risk and historically underserved communities. Staff list the elderly, outdoor workers, people who depend on public transportation and people experiencing homelessness as among the highest priority.

In the meantime, city staffers are urging Austinites to take necessary precautions when exposed to high temperatures and to be on the lookout for signs of heat illness.

“If you start to feel muscle or abdominal cramps, it’s important that you stop what you’re doing, move yourself to a cool place and wait for them to stop,” Luckritz said. “Heat exhaustion is the beginning of an emergency, and symptoms include pale and clammy skin, weakness, dizziness, heavy sweating, nausea and vomiting. If you start to feel these, you need to move to shade or preferably air conditioning and start to sip some cool water. If you fail to do that, this can evolve into heat stroke, which is truly a life-threatening emergency.”

A deeper look at the latest climate projection data is available here.

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