The race for Austin mayor is too close to call. Provisional ballots may tip the scales.

When the Travis County Clerk released the final tally of votes for Austin mayor early Wednesday, none of the candidates had enough to claim victory.

Incumbent Kirk Watson was ahead with just over 50 percent of the vote. He needed (and still needs) 50 percent plus one vote to be declared the winner – otherwise the race goes to a runoff against the candidate with the second-most votes, Carmen Llanes Pulido.

But not all the votes had been counted. In addition to overseas and mail-in ballots, there were still provisional ballots.

These ballots are given to people who want to vote, but have a discrepancy with their voter registration. Maybe their information was entered wrong or their address was not up to date. Or maybe the person had the wrong ID when they showed up to vote.

When this happens, poll workers let the person cast a provisional ballot, but it’s not counted right away; it must go through a verification process.

There were 3,200 provisional ballots cast in Travis County on Nov. 5, according to county data. A bipartisan board will determine if those ballots can be counted as votes.

Chris Davis, the voter registration director for Travis County, said he and his team do research in the days after the election to help the board make their decision. That can be finding and verifying a voter address or whether someone’s name was entered incorrectly.

He said even well-trained people, like poll workers, make mistakes, so his team tries to sort these scenarios out.

“But it’s important for folks to understand that it is not our office or the election office that deems provisional votes counted or not,” he said. “All we do is research and provide information to the ballot board, and the ballot board determines whether to accept or reject.”

There are many reasons a provisional ballot might be cast, so Davis said it’s hard to say how many of them will actually be counted as votes.

“They are not always counted as actual votes – all provisional ballots – but they can be,” he said. “Regardless of the outcome, whether a provisional ballot is accepted or rejected, that provisional voter will be notified by mail from the election division.”

A 2020 study from the Pew Research Center found that about 28.5 percent of all provisional ballots cast across the U.S. in 2016 were rejected. The most common reason was the person was not registered to vote. In Texas, the last day to register to vote is 30 days before the election.

There are a couple of ways a provisional ballot will be counted.

If a voter came to the polls without a proper ID, the person can still cast a ballot. But they must later present their ID to the elections office up to a certain date after the election for the vote to be counted.

If a person requested a mail-in ballot but didn’t receive it, they can vote provisionally as well. The provisional ballot will be accepted as long as the mail-in ballot isn’t. Davis’ team helps the board determine if that mail-in ballot was submitted.

If a ballot is rejected, Davis said that provisional ballot will serve as the person’s voter registration application for future elections.

Watson’s campaign team said they believe he’s still on track to maintain his lead and avoid a runoff. It will depend on where those 3,200 provisional ballots – as well as the overseas, military and domestic mail-in ballots – fall.

Travis County election officials said those ballots are allowed to be accepted through Nov. 12. So the outcome may not be known until Wednesday.

Both candidates have said they are prepared for a Dec. 14 runoff should it be necessary.

This story was produced as part of the Austin Monitor’s reporting partnership with KUT.

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